A new report fromFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reveals that the production outlook for most basic food products is favorable, but extreme climate events, Growing geopolitical tensions and sudden political changes represent a risk to global food production systems and could potentially alter the delicate balance of supply and demand and dampen the outlook for global food trade and security.
According to the report, global maize production will see a notable increase thanks to increased plantations in Brazil and the United States of America, however, a decrease in the trade volume of coarse grains and rice is expected in 2023/24. Furthermore, global trade in vegetable oils and fats will experience a modest decline, while global production and consumption is expected to expand.
The report highlights that, several sectors including sugar, dairy, meat and fish, will see a decrease in trading volume in the coming year. This situation could affect the delicate balance between supply and demand, putting global food security at risk.
The count of food imports in the world
The Food Outlook also presents updated estimates on global spending on food imports in 2023projecting a increase of 1.8% compared to 2022, reaching 2 trillion dollars. The majority of this increase is driven by high- and upper-middle-income countries, with fruit and vegetables, beverages and sugar accounting for the predominant share. In reverse, a contraction of 11% is expected in aggregate spending on food imports in low-income countries, suggesting challenges such as depreciating currencies, rising debt and high transportation costs.
The report highlights that changes in international food prices significantly influence these developments. While the prices of fruit, vegetables and sugars are increasing, those of animal and vegetable oils are decreasing. The volume effect on the global food import bill is expected to exceed the price effect, with some exceptions for high-value or processed products such as coffee, tea, cocoa and spices.
In the end, the report highlights the contraction of food imports in less developed countries, in developing countries that are net importers of food products and in sub-Saharan African countries. This suggests that factors such as weakening currencies, rising debt and high transportation costs are hampering their ability to access international food markets.
In summary, the FAO’s Food Outlook offers a detailed overview of the outlook for global food productionhighlighting the challenges and opportunities the sector will face in the coming years.
Source FAO
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